How can we use the novel capacities of large language models (LLMs) in empirical research? And how can we do so while accounting for their limitations, which are themselves only poorly understood? We ...

In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the ...

The researchers conclude that additional education reduces ADRD risk: Individuals born after the cutoff date showed a 0.2 percentage point reduction in ADRD diagnosis at age 65. The pre-reform ...

Policymakers, public commentators, and researchers often cite the Nordic countries as examples of a social and economic model that successfully combines low income inequality with prosperity and ...

The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s ...

We present evidence that noisy financial flows influence financial conditions and macroeconomic activity. How should monetary policy respond to this noise? We develop a model where it is optimal for ...

This paper proposes a fully nonparametric model to investigate the dynamics of intergenerational income mobility for discrete outcomes. In our model, an individual’s income class probabilities depend ...

The Trump Administration's tariffs created a wedge between mutually beneficial trades between China's producers and U.S. consumers. Moving production to nearby Vietnam allows firms to jump the tariff ...

We study the role played by Chinese state–owned firms during the US–China trade war. Based on measures constructed from Chinese firm–level customs microdata, we show that the presence of state–owned ...

The prospect for electric vehicles (EVs) as a climate change solution hinges on their widespread adoption across political lines. This paper uses county-level data to show that from 2012-2023, about ...

The model has multiple rational expectations equilibria; we associate certain Pareto inferior equilibria with liquidity crises. The government can improve welfare by acting as a “market-maker of last ...

Healthcare fraud imposes a sizable cost on U.S. public healthcare budgets and distorts health care provision. We examine the economics of health care fraud and enforcement using theory and data and ...